Oh, the joys of being flexible! Rather than head south and west only to return north and east, I am staying east and traveling slightly north.

What? It just means that I will be in the heart of horse country near The Plains, Virginia for most of October, and will be able to do some private evaluations in that general area (VA, PA, WV, MD, etc.). If you are interested, let me know. I also plan on taking in Fair Hill before heading to Kentucky.

Once in Lexington (KY), I will attend the November Breeding Stock Sale from Nov 5-16. Anyone interested in having me help them select a horse is welcome to contact me whether they are looking for potential racehorses (weanlings and yearlings) or breeding stock (mares and stallions). I have previously selected a stakes-winning and multi-champion (regional market) racehorse for a client at an extremely reasonable price plus a superior stallion for the sport horse market that gained approval with three registries. Both were purchased through Keeneland sales.

Even if you are not looking for a Thoroughbred for racing purposes – there are other jobs for Thoroughbreds – the volume of horses at the sale provides wonderful opportunities to learn. Breed or discipline preferences do not limit the educational value of examining hundreds of horses in a day. There is one person (an eventer) confirmed for the weekend (Nov 10-11), and one person (barrel racer) trying to arrange a date that fits her schedule. Join me or us.

Anyone interested in spending the day looking at hundreds of horses using functional conformation descriptors – regardless of discipline preferences – can contact me to book dates. It truly is an amazing educational opportunity, and I look forward to spending time with you!

From there I will head south towards Oklahoma and Texas before heading east to Florida.

The two-week sauna has come to a close as far as competitions are concerned. Naturally, I have to write a few serious articles and crop a bunch of photos to meet deadlines for publication, but I thought I would share some of the fun things from the Games in Tryon, NC.

I had heard about southern hospitality, but one must experience it in person to understand how deep it runs and how sincere it is. Total strangers have been completely accommodating and generous with their offers, and I am finally getting used to people calling me ma’am. To any volunteers, employees of the venue and people within the greater community who read this, I once again say it was a joy to have met you.

A Pet Project

Since there were so many disciplines (jumping, dressage, para-dressage, eventing, endurance, vaulting, reining, driving), I thought I would see if I could actually do them all…or a modified version of them given my advancing age.

Jumping – Since the jumping horses go up and down while traveling forward, I believe the ride on the carousel horse counts. No faults incurred unless you count how, at 5’ 11”, I dwarf the horse. Thanks go to Longines for sponsoring the carousel. Kids of all ages loved it.

Dressage and Para-dressage – Riding the simulator counts for my dressage ride and the dismount from it with my twisted left knee and an arthritic right hip must qualify me for para. Thanks go to Barbo Ask-Upmark for the use of the amazing simulator that does both dressage and jumping. I think it would be a great way to retrain your muscle memory and learn what straight and centered really are…not just what feels normal.

Eventing – Dressage phase? Check. Jumping phase? Check. And I think my cross-country trip encompassing 3 provinces and 9 states constitutes my completion of the middle phase. Trust me when I say there were a lot of obstacles along that route.

Endurance – I made it through all the horse inspections while trying to get educational photos, 2 weeks of competition in 8 disciplines at the Games, my own attempts to duplicate the sports, some research, a few interviews plus a ton of photography. And, in the next couple of days, I will finish up the articles with short deadlines before finishing the other ones. Now, that’s endurance!

Vaulting – Once again, Longines provided the horses for my mount and dismount. I even pointed my toes for the dismount photo. Did you notice?

Reining – I had to settle for a sliding stop – indoors, of course – because spinning with my head down made me too dizzy and it didn’t show up well in a photo.

Driving – Four-in-hand? Check. Count the reins if you don’t believe me. And I believe the horsepower rating is within reason. Thanks to Equiline for the use of the reins as well as for showing their people are approachable as well as in possession of a sense of humor.

I also need to thank the photographers who used my camera to aid in my light-hearted attempt at showcasing the various disciplines.

Now off to do my serious work.

As stated earlier, I did not cover reining at WEG this year, but that doesn’t mean I won’t talk about it.

Having covered the sport extensively at the 2006 WEG, attended top level performances in the USA since then and photographed many of the horses at those competitions as well as this one, I did not see a difference in type of horse from a conformational perspective in 12 years.

I caught a scant few portions of the individual performances on the screens in the media room, but nothing caught my eye as unusual. Then someone asked me about the peanut rollers and I assumed they were talking about Western Pleasure. But no!

While riding out the hurricane in Knoxville, I watched a few WEG videos online and was horribly disappointed. Having the horse’s muzzle at knee level is not part of a natural frame. In fact, the horses that go in that frame can actually be seen to elevate their heads just before each maneuver. See for yourself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1KiLXWeS2I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ffP-QK_OT8

(Fonck won the individual gold, USA won team gold)

I do not think this is a positive trend, but, if the judges reward it, then they are perpetuating it. And any reining competitor or any reining organization that does not voice their disapproval about the trend (if they do indeed disapprove), is equally responsible for the continuation of it.

This is natural:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKK7AXLOUNo

Now that I am across the mountains in Tennessee so that Florence doesn’t affect me nearly as much, I will share my WEG tidbits to date.

Travel and Parking

First of all, I planned this trip based on information sent out to the media, which clearly stated that our accreditation would be available as of Friday, Sept. 7^th from 8 to 8 daily.

I left Manitoba (14 hours east of where I live in Alberta) – after giving a talk at the racetrack as well as doing some private evaluations – with this date in mind. I drove for 3 days with the trailer in tow to arrive on the afternoon of the 7^th. I was then told that media credentials would not be available until Monday. The email announcing the change arrived on the 6^th at about 4:30 p.m. local time, while I was actually driving. It stated in part:

“Dear Accredited Media,

Your media accreditation will be available to pick up from the Accreditation Center on September 10^th from 8am.

Also good news for those of you driving! We have managed to secure closer parking for all media…”

Good news for those of you driving??? Hard to tell the author of the email is from the UK and has little concept of what a road trip really is. Her whole country would only fill up about a third of my province.

When I was informed that I would be issued parking passes a month or more ago, I informed this same person that my vehicle was oversized and takes the equivalent of two pull-through stalls and asked for advice. I received no response.

However, I was given a number to call re my parking situation once I had accreditation and passes in hand on Sept. 10^th. After trying (perhaps in vain) to convince the person I called that I was not complaining, just asking where I should park, she took my number and informed me that she would call me by noon the next day. Want to guess whether that ever happened? Fortunately someone with some sense had overheard my conversation and called the site’s security and asked where I could park. I was put in an entirely suitable lot, where horse trailers were stored and the employees parked. Problem solved…or so I thought.

I parked in the proper lot and as directed by the person at the entrance on Tuesday and was promptly sewn in. Wednesday’s revision was to park in the lower level of this lot. OK. But, people had parked along the roadway to and from the lower level and threading a trailer through that gauntlet was a challenge. Plus, the vehicles that had me sewn in on the lower level (Yes, it happened again.) did not move until 11:30 p.m. I was forgiving in this case as the outside (non-venue) security/parking folks had been called away to aid efforts along the NC coast. Totally predictable that members of the public took advantage and parked wherever they wanted.

That night, another Tryon security person told me to park on the upper level behind the track-hoe (my original spot) and mark off enough room so I could get out. This was done with yellow rope attached to the track-hoe and the front of my truck. True, no one parked directly in front of my truck, but, apparently the driver of a BMW SUV thought it a good idea to park in front of the rope. Same result. I was not able to leave. I went back to the media venue and snooped about. Somewhere in this time span, someone thought they should shut off my propane tank so that the fridge was not working in the hot, humid weather. I suspect a certain SUV driver. Eventually (8:00 p.m.) I was able to leave, go top up the fuel and drive back to the lot, where I parked on the lower level next to a horse trailer and spent the night.

I left the Tryon facilities Friday afternoon and arrived safely on the western side of the mountains without encountering too much wind and only the odd rain shower.

Now I am going to see what I can rig up to make the valve on the propane tank tamper-proof. And I will shop for the parts at the Walmart that has been kind enough to let me overnight here.

The Venue

(Photo: People will park anywhere they like. The ones seated in this photo simply removed the chairs from below and parked themselves in the pedestrian corridor. Inconveniencing others is of no concern.)

When they get it finished – yes, it is still under construction – the facility will be marvelous!

Riders from several nations and in various arena-based disciplines said that everything regarding the horses was excellent: footing, stabling, etc. One rider added that the grooms’ housing was dodgy, but was quickly remedied.

However, all areas of new or recent construction are soggy as the local base is made of red clay, which enlarges one’s footprints (sticks to your footwear) and turns to soup. I think the ground in the general area was nearing a saturation point before Florence was a real threat, because of the wet summer.

Naturally, rain, wind and potential mudslides factored into my decision to head west.

I do feel sorry for the vendors, who will have a tough time keeping their tents and signage in place and their products dry.

Endurance Debacle

What? Some – not all – of the riders were sent out on the wrong loop at the start? How does that happen? All were called back and the race was restarted at a shorter distance. Still not fair for all as some riders took advantage of the opportunity to walk the distances others had covered at racing pace.

In the end…or rather, the un-end, the race was cancelled. The official FEI statement included, “The remainder of today’s Endurance competition has been cancelled due to a potentially dangerously high combination of heat and humidity, and the conditions out on the trail following heavy rain this afternoon. The decision to cancel, which is in accordance with FEI General Regulations, Article 109.12 was unanimous between the President of the Ground Jury, Technical Delegate and President of the Veterinary Commission, and the Organising Committee.”

I encountered an exasperated horseman from Guatemala in the parking lot. “We shipped the horse all the way here and now it is cancelled,” he said. Of course, heat and humidity would be normal conditions for him and his horse.

There was some scuttlebutt that the sponsor, Meydan (“the visionary concept of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, UAE Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai,” as stated on their website.), had used some influence since the horses from the desert would most likely react poorly to the humidity.

That was a possibility in my thoughts until I happened to sit across from one of the working vets at lunch. He practices in Scotland, so likely had no vested interested in the outcome except as it related to horse welfare. He told me that there were a lot of horses having issues, mostly metabolic in nature, and that several had been brought to the clinic for fluids. “Recoverable?” I asked. “Mostly.” He said. As it turned out, one horse died.

The Oldies

The title of this section refers to horses only. No comment on the humans.

After the press conference that followed the dressage team medals, I spoke to Debbie McDonald about a few things, including the fate of Brentina (1991). I was thrilled when she said the old gal was still doing well in retirement, even though Debbie said the mare has some of the visual signs of aging. She is turned out during the day and in a stall at night. Unfortunately the two embryo transfers that produced Brentina foals, fell under Murphy’s Law to some degree and Debbie called a halt to the process. “She didn’t need to go through all that palpating and stuff.”

And after the eventing dressage, I spoke to Hawley Bennett-Awad and her mother about Hank (Livingstone), a 1990 model, who is now retired from riding and living a life of leisure in California. “He looks great, all dappled. He’s still got good muscle tone. He gets turned out with the young ones and plays with them,” says Hawley.

My Projects

My intent was to show the ranges of motion most common among certain disciplines. I have casual walk pictures (sequential) of most of the dressage horses, quite a few endurance horses most of the eventers and some of the reining horses. I intend to add the jumpers and driving horses next week.

The reining group was a bit problematic. I went to the horse inspection (FEI jog), but was unaware that they had moved up the start time. Nice.

I was not seeking the same photos as the professional photographers, so I positioned myself to take the sequential photos from the side. Unfortunately, the only side visible to me was not the side with the horse’s number on the bridle or halter and I was not allowed access to the opposite side. I asked for a copy of the order of go, so I could try to identify the horses I had photographed. That did not happen even though I went through proper channels. I decided that I was not going to stress about anything and wrote the people at reining and thanked them for lightening my workload at WEG. Because I could not ID the horses I had photographed, and could not do any advance pedigree research, I simply would not be covering their sport. Sigh, smile and suddenly no stress. (I believe their individual final is going on as I type this.)

One of the articles that I intend to write for Warmbloods Today will incorporate the battle of the sexes (riders and horses) in Dressage, Eventing and Jumping. I’ll do some pedigree research as well and note any new trends for publication or for posting here. I may also include my Range-of-Motion piece for my regular column in the above publication. Towards that end: time for some more research.

Breaking News

The dressage freestyle will not be rescheduled. It has been cancelled due to weather and logistics. Fortunately, the Olympic qualifications were based on the team results on Thursday.

Part 2 to follow after I return to Tryon.

I have been putting in a lot of thought when it comes to WEG, Florence and me, and, of course a fair amount of time monitoring weather conditions.

Since I understand some basic physics, I am aware that if I can move my trailer (my home on the road) with a pickup, strong winds and flash floods can move it too. As a result, I think I will take a little jaunt over the mountains to the Knoxville (TN) area and see what Florence dishes out for the Games in Tryon, NC, while ensconced in another (probably safer) location.

In regards to Florence, I read about hurricane preparedness because Alberta, which encompasses the eastern slopes as well as the foothills of the Rockies, doesn’t get hurricanes. I was pleased to discover that a lot of the suggested provisions – extra water, food, spare gasoline, alternate sources of power (batteries, solar and a generator), etc. – were already part of my life in the trailer!

The photo was taken Wednesday near the vet gate for Endurance, an area that is supposed to be part of the staging for cross-country on Saturday. Not if there’s more rain and strong wind gusts.

I’ll probably post my first real WEG piece from Tennessee. Stay tuned as I have some interesting (I think) tidbits.

If what Sir Robert Baker said is true, “A breeder is one who leaves the breed with more depth of quality than when he started. All others are but multipliers of the species,” then it could be that culling is a natural part of the process for breeders and not for multipliers.

David Trus, geneticist in the Animal Industry Division of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, added, “Modern animal breeding seeks to direct the natural evolutionary process.  Rather than fitness for survival in the wild, breeders seek to breed animals which are productive and excel at certain functions, are manageable, fit and healthy for the desired usage. Good breeding is most effectively achieved as a collective undertaking of many breeders having common goals, typically within a breed.  In the end, good breeding should be directed towards the collective goals of breeders, be beneficial to the well-being of individual animals, and be positive for the fitness and survival of the population.”

And, another appropriate quote, which is attributed to a friend’s grandfather: “Breeding animals is playing God and taking over the Garden of Eden. And a good garden needs to be weeded!”

These quotes point to the need for culling, but what does culling mean?

Defining Culling

According to Wikipedia, “the word comes from the Latin colligere, which means ‘to collect’. The term can be applied broadly to mean sorting a collection into two groups: one that will be kept and one that will be rejected. The cull is the set of items rejected during the selection process. The culling process is repeated until the selected group is of proper size and consistency desired.”

Cattle versus Horses

In cattle (beef or dairy) it is a common belief that the herd must be culled from time to time in order to maintain the genetics as well as profitability.

Dairy cow culling: Best practices and industry trends, as authored by J. Walker and published in the Journal of Animal Science (Volume 94, Issue suppl_5, 1 October 2016, Pages 132), states, “education, training and accountability will be the necessary drivers to secure change needed to demonstrate to consumers and customers alike that the welfare of cattle continues to be an industry priority.” The article can be viewed here: https://academic.oup.com/jas/article-abstract/94/suppl_5/132/4765998

From https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23911043 : “Complete breeding records were collected from 455 warmblood stallions serving between 1975 and 2010 at Marbach State Stud in Germany. The median length of life (18.0 years) was twice as long as the median length of service (9.0 years). However, both figures increased significantly over the time period examined (e.g., functional longevity increased from 5 years in the 1970s to 8 years in the 1980s to 12 years in the 1990s)… A more direct consideration of both functional and biological longevity in breeding programmes might help to further enhance both figures, and therefore welfare of the horses.”

A study in Icelandic horses – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1831549/ – shows, among other things, the distribution of causes of culling of 98 Icelandic horses.

What is also interesting in this study was the number of horses that had radiographic evidence of bone spavin and/or lameness after flexion and the time frame until they were culled from riding. Amazing was the fact that culling from riding for these reasons usually meant being sold or being used for breeding. One has to wonder how much the horses culled due to bone spavin and then selected for breeding are contributing to bone spavin being a common issue within the breed.

When talking with people who breed both cattle and horses, it was clear that nearly all had a breeding plan and firm beliefs regarding the culling of their cattle. Curiously, when asked if they held the same standards for their horse breeding, most wavered. And, when asked why, the response tended to include an emotional element.

Cattle breeders would get laughed out of the stockyards if they said they bred a substandard cow because she was cute. However, horse breeders often say they bred their substandard mare because she was cute.

Cattle breeders seldom retain breeding stock just because there are famous relatives in the pedigree if the heifer, cow or bull does not exhibit the superior qualities of the famous ancestors. In general, they assess their stock far more objectively than many horse breeders do. Their culling policies are in keeping with strict breeding goals.

In the horse industry, it is quite common to market a young horse based on pedigree, even if the youngster does not resemble any of the horses of note in the ancestry. If it falls short of the expectations of the new owner and it is breedable, it enters the gene pool and likely propagates more descendants that do not resemble the superior ancestors.

Personal Experiences

During the 2018 breeding season, I was afforded the opportunity to go along when a stallion I had selected for sport was being collected for shipped semen. While the vet tech was preparing the semen for shipping, the vet was busy palpating client mares. The three mares (all with different owners) being palpated were to be inseminated via shipped semen from various stallions within their breeds, and, amazingly to me, all three were being bred because they could not perform in competition. No, they were not aged mares; in fact, they were young mares, just not athletic or not sound. That’s when it really hit home that the poorer quality horses are entering the gene pool earlier than the sound athletes, and therefore, have the potential to be more influential by number of foals produced. There is definitely something wrong with this picture when compared to the quotes in the first section of this piece.

I was disheartened, but I did find some solace in the following: The Importance of Culling Mares by Tom Reed (which can be found here:  http://www.morningside-stud.com/gpage30.html). “The goal we have set for ourselves of breeding and producing world-class athletes is a tough one. If we are to achieve this goal on a systematic basis we must use world-class stallions and mares in our breeding program and make informed, creative, and bold choices about which particular genetic endowments to combine each year to produce a foal. That’s the fun part: analyzing bloodlines, genotypes, phenotypes, and the actual production of mares and stallions to decide which stallions and mares are paired each year.

“The not-so-fun part is deciding which mares (and stallions) to remove from our breeding program.

“Each year we cull a minimum of 10% of our female herd (in practice we have been culling 10 – 15% each year). How do we decide which mares and fillies to cull?

“If a mare produces a foal that is in the bottom 10% (10th percentile) of its cohort in terms of athleticism, type, movement, and conformation the mare is put on a “watch list”. The following year if she produces a foal that is in the bottom 10% of its cohort the mare is culled. If she produces a foal that is between the 11th and 25th percentile of its cohort the mare is maintained on the “watch list” for another year. The next year if the produces another foal that is below the 25th percentile she is culled.

“If the foal she subsequently produces is an extraordinary filly — and apparently superior to its dam in terms of athleticism, type, movement, and conformation — we cull the mare from the breeding program and keep the filly foal.

“What do we do with our culled mares?

“If the mare produces correct foals but they are simply not good enough for Morningside Stud’s breeding and competition program we give the mare to a good friend whose breeding aspirations are not as high as ours. If the mare produces incorrect foals she is removed from the breeding population through euthanasia.

“We never sell culled mares to other breeders.”

And when I attended a sale for yearling Thoroughbreds and saw how few of the youngsters actually sold, I was on alert. Looking at the individuals and their pedigrees, it struck me that they were neither built for, nor bred for, racing in the local market. Wondering if this was the norm, I looked at pedigrees of the horses actually racing locally, where most races are 6 furlongs and a seldom-run long race is a mile – all on the dirt. What did I find? Tons of famous sires or grandsires (paternal and maternal) that won races such as the Breeders’ Cup Classic (1 ¼ miles) and the Kentucky Derby (1 ½ miles) or were distance turf horses in Europe. Where were the sprinter/miler pedigrees? It made no sense to me. Surprisingly, I found a similar situation while perusing the yearling sale catalogue from another small market with predominantly short races. Were the famous distance ancestors supposed to attract buyers? But then it occurred to me that the majority of the horses were on equal footing because they were racing against other horses with distance pedigrees even if they were ‘going short’.

Points to Ponder

Accountability includes everything from disposition to conformation to genetic diseases and encompasses the individual horses as well as the gene pool of the breed or registry. Breeding horses should not be taken lightly.

From https://equimed.com/diseases-and-conditions/reference/genetic-conditions

“Selective breeding and DNA testing are used to determine the chances of a foal being affected by a genetic condition. Careful attention to background of breeding stock, plus DNA testing when any questions arise as to whether or not a horse may be a carrier, can reduce the number of foals born with genetic conditions.”

Unfortunately, health and quality of life can easily be compromised when not closely guarded in the gene pool, and selecting for specific performance traits without considering the soundness and longevity of the horses produced is compromising.

From the Chronicle of the Horse forum: “The key is to have a clearly defined breeding goal and then to develop a clearly defined culling policy…and to avoid policy drift on either dimension.”

“Breeding is a RESPONSIBILITY. Culling is not ruthless; it’s kind and quite logical. It’s simply not continuing to breed combinations of mares and stallions that are not producing equal or BETTER than themselves. It requires an objective eye and a generous heart to stop breeding certain individuals, no matter how much you ‘love’ them. The kindest thing you can ever do is NOT breed horses that will put babies on the ground that for genetic or conformational or behavioral reasons will be [mistreated] for what they cannot possibly do in the proposed sport, through no fault of their own. Breed and market babies for that individual’s propensities. As a breeder, it should be an ethical obligation.”

So what is your breeding goal and what is your culling plan?

Okay, so I am getting set to leave Canada and head to North Carolina to cover the World Equestrian Games.

But before I depart, I want to thank the Manitoba chapter of the CTHS – and, specifically Dr. Betty Hughes DVM – for organizing the clinic at Assiniboia Downs racetrack in Winnipeg. I also want to thank the people who volunteered their horses for the hands-on session as well as the staff who handled them.

The feedback I received has been favorable, and I hope horses and humans benefit from the information!

PS

For those who had me do private evaluations, I’m looking forward to updates from you.

According to Animal Genetics Inc., Warmblood Fragile Foal Syndrome (WFFS) is an autosomal-recessive trait, meaning a foal can only be affected if that foal inherits the disease from both parents. Parents that are carriers do not have any symptoms associated with WFFS. However, they will pass on a copy of the defective gene to their offspring 50% of the time whether bred to a carrier or a non-carrier and regardless of the foal’s gender. If two carriers are bred, the foal has a 25% chance of being affected (a death sentence) and a 50% chance of being a carrier. (Feel free to research this further on your own. I have, but did not want to get bogged down in such matters due to the points I am trying to make.)

My understanding is that, in March of 2012, a mare that gave birth to a foal with all the symptoms currently associated with WFFS was at first thought to be a carrier for a different genetic disease, such as Hereditary Equine Regional Dermal Asthenia (HERDA, which was discovered in 2007). When she was found to not be a carrier, research of her and some of her relatives led to the identification of the genetic anomaly responsible for WFFS.

A genetic test for Warmblood Fragile Foal Syndrome Type 1 (WFFS), developed by N. Winand, became commercially available in 2013.

There is no way of knowing the exact numbers of WFFS cases prior to the test due to possible misdiagnoses, and there is no way of accurately predicting the number of cases since the test due to misdiagnoses and very limited testing of aborted fetuses that may be linked to the syndrome.

Detailed information about the prevalence of the WFFS mutation is not readily available; however, random samplings of 124 horses (used in the patent application for the genetic test) and 500 warmbloods in Germany (study by B. Gunreban) showed carrier rates of 11.11% and 9.5% respectively. Let’s say 10%, shall we?

Update: This percentage is at best a guess in today’s gene pool, and is likely higher than it was 5 years ago. It may be seen as a ‘rare’ condition, but assuming that the percentage will stay the same and not increase without intervention is simply uninformed.

What If #1

Let’s assume there are 4,000 warmblood breeding stallions worldwide (alive or deceased and available through frozen semen) and an equal number of breeding mares. (If you want to argue about the actual numbers here, you will miss the point.)

Let’s further assume that 10% of them are carriers of WFFS. That would mean that 400 of the stallions are carriers and 400 of the mares are carriers. Agreed?

Now let’s say that each carrier stallion averages 100 foals over a decade and that each carrier mare averages 6 foals over that time span. (Again, if you want to argue about the actual numbers here, you will miss the point.) Given these numbers, each carrier stallion will have sired 50 carriers, whether he was bred to a carrier mare or not, and each carrier mare will have produced 3 carriers, whether bred to a carrier stallion or not. If a carrier stallion and a carrier mare are mated, they will produce 50% carriers and 25% foals with WFFS. That’s how autosomal recessive syndromes work.

So, from our 400 carrier stallions we now have 40,000 offspring, half of which, 20,000, are carriers. Since most of the matings will likely be warmblood to warmblood, we will not add the offspring of the mares to our totals in this What If scenario.

Not all of the offspring will be breeding stock, but half will be male and half will be female. So, let’s assume that 20% will be stallions, 30% will be geldings and that all of the fillies will become broodmares. That leaves us with 4,000 new carrier stallions (20% of the 20,000 carrier offspring) and 10,000 new carrier broodmares (50% of the 20,000 carrier offspring).

Now let’s pretend that, in that same decade, half of our original stallions are no longer available for breeding through fresh or frozen semen. Fair? And let’s pretend that none of the original mares are still producing. Reasonable?

Looking at the subsequent decade, we have 4,200 (200 + 4,000) carrier stallions and 10,000 carrier mares. Please note that the number of carrier stallions now exceeds the total number of stallions assumed to be in the genepool currently. We can again assume that each stallion will sire 100 foals over the decade and that 50% of them will be carriers. That gives us 21,000 new carriers (half of 42,000 foals) in our second decade.

Of course, there has been no mention of affected foals if a carrier is bred to a carrier because they will not enter the gene pool. But do keep in mind that as the percentage of carriers increases so does the likelihood of breeding a carrier to a carrier.

Can you see how the numbers and percentages of carriers will increase and that just breeding a carrier to a non-carrier will not halt the progression of WFFS?

What If #2

What if all the warmblood breeds, studbooks and registries made testing mandatory? And what if they all decided not to license any new stallions that were carriers, to not approve any new mares that were carriers and not register any foals that were carriers? (Geldings and spayed fillies would be exempt.)

Update: This possible course of action does not restrict any bloodline nor cause it to be lost. Only the carriers from any given line would be ineligible for registration unless not capable of reproduction. It also does not force anyone to have their breeding stock tested. It does force them to have the offspring tested if they want to register them.

Of course these policies would have to apply to all of the regulatory bodies or there would likely be dizzying shifts from registry to registry. By applying these new rules from this point onward, there would be no forced removal of any breeding stock, but there would be incentives to breed for non-carriers!

How long do you think it would take before the gene pool was clear of the mutation? One decade? Two decades?

Discussion

Please compare the two What Ifs and, by all means do your own research and calculations. You might even want to look at what has happened in the past regarding autosomal-recessive syndromes in horses. Pay particular attention to what has happened once a condition was identified, tests were made available, education was provided and the governing bodies did not take immediate and firm action. See how many of those that were identified decades ago are still in the afflicted gene pools today.

By all means discuss these topics with others. As for me, I am very sad, because I have a strong suspicion that What If #2 will never even be considered.

Please read the replies, and feel free to add your own.

Okay, so here’s the plan for the next year… at least as it stands right now. My hope is that I will have the opportunity to meet some of my readers and maybe do some clinics, symposiums and/or private work along the way. Keep in mind that I am not breed or discipline specific, but can customize for specific audiences.

March, 2018 – Lower Mainland of British Columbia.  Ingrid Klimke clinic March 17 & 18. Read about the Ingrid Clinic in Warmbloods Today and Flying Changes.

April, 2018 – Alberta (Edmonton, Red Deer and Calgary areas with other areas possible)

May, June, July, 2018 – Alberta or wherever the work takes me

August, 2018 – Alberta and Saskatchewan in the first three weeks, and possibly Manitoba for a clinic with the Canadian Thoroughbred Horse Society Manitoba division on Sunday, the 26th.

September, 2018 – World Equestrian Games (11^th – 23^rd) in North Carolina

October, 2018 – Open for bookings until the final week (pre-Breeders’ Cup)

November, 2018 – Breeders’ Cup horseraces (2nd & 3rd but I will be there earlier) in Louisville, Kentucky, followed by the Keeneland Mixed Sale (5th-16th) in Lexington, where I will offer tutoring in horse analysis (all disciplines). Learn how to spot the athlete, identify potential soundness issues, pick a second career, etc. The immersion will be limited to three (3) people per day and charged at a flat day rate.

December, 2018 – Open for bookings

January, 2019 – Florida (Wellington and perhaps other areas)

February, 2019 – Florida (Wellington and perhaps other areas)

March, 2019 – If I head west before going north then Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, California, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Oregon, Washington, etc.

April, 2019 – Canada